US-JTWC: LPA (92W), east of Philippines, has low chance of becoming a typhoon in the next 24 hours


ADVISORY: (Last modified: 21:00 November 7, 2020) Invest 92W has a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.

An area of convection (Invest 92W) has persisted near 9.6N 136.5E, approximately 174 nautical miles northeast of Palau, FSM.

Animated multispectral satellite imagery (MSI) depicts broad low level turning with disorganized and flaring convection overhead.

A partial 06/04:43 UTC AMSR2 89 GHz composite microwave image reveals disorganized areas of deep convection around a broad low level circulation (LLC).

Invest 92W is in an environment that is conducive to further development with warm (29-30°C) sea surface temperatures (SST) and divergence aloft offset by moderate (10-20 knot) vertical wind shear (VWS).

Global models generally agree that Invest 92W will continue to track northwestward as it consolidates and strengthens.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1007 mb.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).
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