US-JTWC: Tropical Depression #UlyssesPh to become stronger and intensify in the next 24 hours





Forecast track via weathernerds


Invest 93W (Philippine name Ulysses) has a high chance of developing into a stronger storm (tropical cyclone) in the next 24 hours.

The area of convection (Invest 93W) previously located near 8.2N 133.5E is now located near 9.1N 134.2E, approximately 111 nautical miles north-northwest of Palau.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a broad, quickly consolidating low level circulation center (LLCC) with fragmented formative banding beginning to wrap in from the north and south.

A 08/09:52 UTC SSMIS F-17 91GHz microwave image similarly reveals the tightening LLCC with the fragmented banding features to the north and south.

A 08/11:51 UTC Metop-B partial ASCAT pass shows the circulation to remain very broad with a large area of 37 km/h to 46 km/h winds located in the eastern semicircle.

Invest 93W is in a favorable environment for development with excellent dual-channel outflow, low (5-15 knots) vertical wind shear, and warm (30°C) sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in general agreement that 93W will quickly consolidate and intensify as it tracks north-northwestward in the next 12 to 24 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 27 km/h to 40 km/h. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1005 mb.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high.

Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).
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